I’m just showing these comments I saw earlier, which were interesting. Since it is true, that we’ve been hearing that “Russia is cornered”, since the invasion started. I personally just want this shit to end.

These comments are relating to an article from this week.

I wonder if we will ever know what truly happens on the ground (i.e. when it comes to casualties and many other things)

  • bucho@lemmy.one
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    2 years ago

    What a lot of people fail to grasp about why Ukraine isn’t advancing more quickly despite having superior equipment and training than the vast majority of the Russian army is the realities on the ground. For example, NATO tactics assume no, or very few mines. Ukraine is the most heavily mined place on Earth now. NATO tactics assume air superiority. Ukraine has very few fighter jets, and won’t receive new ones from Western countries for several more months.

    The reality is that despite being better equipped and trained, there are still several extremely difficult obstacles in the way of them reclaiming their land, and so they’re taking it fairly slow in an effort to not throw lives away unnecessarily. Even so, every square inch they liberate is paid for in blood.

    Still, I’m optimistic about the next few months. Ukrainians just reached the first Surovikin line near Novoprokopivka, and the latest reports suggest they’ve already entered the eastern side of that village. If they can take it and the high ground in that area, they’ll have about 12km of contact with the trench network. If they can make a breakthrough at any point along that line, they can assault the length of it from 3 different directions, and collapse a whole front.

    Also, with the death of Prigozhin, there’s a decent chance of more unrest in Moscow, which would likely move Russians off the front line to quell any dissent back home. That, combined with morale among the Russian forces being at an all-time nadir makes me optimistic about Ukraine’s chances of advancing to Tokmak this year. And Tokmak is a lynchpin of the entire Russian defense in the area. It’s a major hub, as it is where all of the rail lines from the east join the west. If the Ukrainians control Tokmak, practically the entire area south of the Dnipro will be cut off from supplies.

    So yeah, fingers crossed!

      • bucho@lemmy.one
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        2 years ago

        Yes. Both things are true. It’s not like some weird gordian knot that you have to strain your brain to figure out. The majority of the Russian army at this point are very poorly trained mobilized soldiers. They still have a few veteran units, but after a year and a half of fighting, most of them have been replaced with mobiks. And Russia is now calling for another 450,000 people to be conscripted, despite having very little in the way of equipment to give them.

        • infuziSporg [e/em/eir]@hexbear.net
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          2 years ago

          “They were given some of the best training in the world. The reality of war, fighting against a comparable force without air superiority and in the context of 200-year-old technology is just something no one could have predicted.”

          “Also, the country with the second most extensive military in the world and a pervasive military culture is about to have its forces depleted against its neighbor, which has less than a quarter of its population and which is by far the poorest country in the region.”

          This isn’t delusion or blind hope at all. I fully believe you.

    • wantToViewEmojis [she/her]@hexbear.net
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      2 years ago

      They cannot be said to be better trained if the training they have is total dogshit for the situation. They are unequivically worse trained than the russians. This is insanely contrarian thinking. Training cannot be better in the ideal, it can only be better in the material.

    • BelieveRevolt [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      2 years ago

      Ukrainian: I am so sick of this meat grinder of a war and Western propaganda is full of shit.

      Western lib: Yay for more meat in the grinder!

      • bucho@lemmy.one
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        2 years ago

        I don’t know what you expect the Ukrainians to do. Give up? Just accept another huge chunk of their territory being taken from them? Fuck that. They’re fighting an oppressive imperialist power. They have my full support. Y’all can get fucked.

        • BelieveRevolt [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          2 years ago

          Give up? Just accept another huge chunk of their territory being taken from them?

          Yeah, they’re not getting that territory back, ever. The counteroffensive is a failure.

    • volcel_olive_oil [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      2 years ago

      if they have the wrong equipment for the task at hand, wouldn’t that mean that they are worse equipped?

      if they have run through their “last reserve brigades” as the redditor in the OP screenshot says, when will they have the time to train their new guys “better”?

      you are for sure optimistic about Ukraine’s willingness to throw lives into the grinder

      • bucho@lemmy.one
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        2 years ago

        Alright there, bud. Please tell me where anything that I have said has diverged from objective reality.

        • space_comrade [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          2 years ago

          All of it tbh. Think about it, if NATO tactics are as inappropriate as you’re making them why did they even train with them? Seems like a pretty basic thing to consider.

          They’re just plain old losing because they’re a much weaker force than Russia. The actual truth is Russia’s army isn’t nearly as weak or as disorganized as western media pretends they are, it’s actually a pretty large and modern professional army. Ukraine’s army probably had good professional soldiers in the beginning but not nearly as much as Russia, and now most of them are gone. Recruits with a few months of training aren’t going to win a fight against a bigger and better trained army.

          Unless NATO steps in with actual boots on ground Ukraine is going to lose, there is no scenario where they win unless like you said there is a revolution in Russia, which again seems pretty unlikely no matter how much western media pretends Russia is unstable or whatever.

          You’re high on opinion articles from western media written by propagandists, not people knowledgeable in warfare.

    • CyborgMarx [any, any]@hexbear.net
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      2 years ago

      Damn near 10 to 1 Russian artillery fire rate advantage for over a year now, plus total air superiority and you still think Ukrainians are “better equipped”

      Also in what universe are the new Ukrainian conscripts “better trained” than the war hardened veterans of the regular Russian army, who haven’t suffered even a twentieth of the casualties of the professional Ukrainian units

      You’re literally just making shit up and hoping no one with actual knowledge of the situation notices

    • SexMachineStalin [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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      2 years ago

      fingers crossed!

      Yay, hoping for Ukraine to become even poorer and then what’s going to happen to the millions of Russians living in Crimea and eastern Ukraine? Do they just get genocided or flee en masse in another Nakba, lib?

      :eat-ass: :PIGPOOPBALLS:

      • bucho@lemmy.one
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        2 years ago

        Now the Ukrainian army is less trained and has inferior equipment to fight this war then they did at the start

        Even poorer? WTF are you talking about? I want them to get their land back, and kill the fuckers invading them. I want them to get the tens of thousands of children Russia abducted back. I want them to get reparations for the invasion.

        what’s going to happen to the millions of Russians living in Crimea and eastern Ukraine?

        I couldn’t give one single, solitary fuck.

        Do they just get genocided or flee en masse in another Nakba, lib?

        Well, flee if they’re ingelligent, I suppose.

          • bucho@lemmy.one
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            2 years ago

            Hey, so what the fuck was Obama and Biden doing in :ukkkraine: 10 years ago?

            Very little. When Russia invaded the last time around, the US was too scared to send military hardware for fear of provoking Putin. So they sent MREs instead. Fucking MREs. What a joke.

    • dinklesplein [any, he/him]@hexbear.net
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      2 years ago

      The reality is that despite being better equipped and trained, there are still several extremely difficult obstacles in the way of them reclaiming their land, and so they’re taking it fairly slow in an effort to not throw lives away unnecessarily. Even so, every square inch they liberate is paid for in blood.

      ?xd this is literally what vatniks say about the approach taken by russian armed forces btw.

      • bucho@lemmy.one
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        2 years ago

        Ok? Well, they’re either lying, or they’re stupid. There is a massive amount of evidence that that is not true. For instance, just look at how they approached taking Bakhmut using human wave tactics into entrenched, well armed forces. Or their multiple failed attempts to retake Vuhledar. In both cases, it was not exactly tactical. They just kept pouring men and machines into a heavily fortified area just hoping, I guess, that the Ukrainians were asleep at the trigger. And the kicker is, neither place was particularly tactically important.

        They gained no additional ground after taking Bakhmut because it’s in the low ground and to advance, they’d have to take the fortified heights around it. Bakhmut offered no strategic benefit as far as logistical hubs go, and that’s even before it was leveled. A smarter army would have bypassed it, but word came down from on high to take it at any cost, so that’s what they did.

    • anaesidemus [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      2 years ago

      I don’t think any of those things will happen. IIRC the consensus from the newsthreads here was that unless the war ends on the ground this year or next then Western support would stop and then Zelenskyy would be forced to make peace.

      • Nagarjuna [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        2 years ago

        Which sucks, because negotiating peace when you have capacity to wage war puts you in a much better position than negotiating peace when you have no other option

      • SimulatedLiberalism [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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        2 years ago

        Reminder that Russia made it clear since the beginning that they only wanted three conditions: denazification, Ukraine pledging neutrality by not joining NATO, and recognition of the sovereignty of the Donbass republics.

        The peace talk in April 2022 was sabotaged by Boris Johnson. The Western imperialists wanted this war to keep going. The blood is on their hands.

    • Gay_Tomato [they/them, it/its]@hexbear.net
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      2 years ago

      Despite having superior equipment and training than the vast majority of the Russian army farquaad-point

      Thank you for debunking yourself mid post to save everyone’s time

      For example, NATO tactics assume no, or very few mines.

      Ukraine is the most heavily mined place on Earth now.

      NATO tactics assume air superiority.

      Ukraine has very few fighter jets, and won’t receive new ones from Western countries for several more months.

      You are correct. Nato does not understand the realities on the ground. Now the Ukrainian army is less trained and has inferior equipment to fight this war then they did at the start and when switch to their “primative” soviet tactics and actually make gains their western masters start pulling out the calipers.

      • bucho@lemmy.one
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        2 years ago

        Thank you for debunking yourself mid post to save everyone’s time

        Uh, what? A significant portion of the Russian army at this point is mobilized soldiers with days of training. This is not Western propaganda, unless you’re saying that the Russian milbloggers and Russian posters on Russian telegram channels who say the same things are Western plants.

        Now the Ukrainian army is less trained and has inferior equipment to fight this war then they did at the start

        What? Are you completely out of your gourd? They have vastly superior equipment now than they did at the start. Cluster munitions, Bradleys, Leopards, self-propelled howitzers… The Ukrainians are better prepared to fight this war now than at any point in their history.

        I mean, I know you guys are a lot of tankies, but Jesus. Use your brain.

        • FortifiedAttack [any]@hexbear.net
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          2 years ago

          This is not Western propaganda, unless you’re saying that the Russian milbloggers and Russian posters on Russian telegram channels who say the same things are Western plants.

          Alright, show us those Russian milbloggers and posters you are referring to, or at least mention them by name.

          What? Are you completely out of your gourd? They have vastly superior equipment now than they did at the start. Cluster munitions, Bradleys, Leopards, self-propelled howitzers… The Ukrainians are better prepared to fight this war now than at any point in their history.

          Yeah I’m sure those 200 Leopard tanks are gonna last them a long time. They’ve made such amazing progress during the last 3 months of counteroffensive, haven’t they?

          Maybe this will come at a surprise to you, but armies are generally better prepared before they grind down their armament and personnel over a gruelling 18 month war. Moreover, you can’t just replace troops like you replace weapons.

          I mean, I know you guys are a lot of tankies, but Jesus. Use your brain.

          Try using your own every once in a while. It helps.

        • GarbageShoot [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          2 years ago

          How “well-equipped” and “well-trained” they are in a vacuum is trivia compared to how well-equipped and -trained they are for the conflict at hand. It seems undeniable that Russia is functionally much better equipped if they have air superiority on ground covered in mines.

    • MoreAmphibians [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      2 years ago

      For example, NATO tactics assume no, or very few mines. Ukraine is the most heavily mined place on Earth now. NATO tactics assume air superiority. Ukraine has very few fighter jets, and won’t receive new ones from Western countries for several more months.

      So NATO trained Ukrainians with tactics completely unsuited to the kind of war that Ukraine is fighting. Do you think this was because of malice or stupidity?

      • bucho@lemmy.one
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        2 years ago

        So NATO trained Ukrainians with tactics completely unsuited to the kind of war that Ukraine is fighting. Do you think this was because of malice or stupidity?

        Neither? You can only train people on the things you have experience with. Ukraine is fighting a unique war from the perspective of NATO trainers. That doesn’t make the training the Ukrainians have received worthless. They have benefitted quite heavily from training in squad tactics, combined arms, etc. Military training is far more extensive than just: “Hey - avoid minefields.”

        • Maoo [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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          2 years ago

          Sounds like you think it’s stupidity, because the obvious first step in “teaching what you know” is recognizing whether the situation even remotely applies. If I’m trying to teach you to deep fry with a waffle iron, I’m the dum-dum and you are my victim.

          But I’ll offer a third option: casual negligence driven by a lack of care for Ukrainian life. When commands things there’s no expectation of success, you don’t cross the Ts or dot the Is.

    • tuga [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      2 years ago

      Still, I’m optimistic about the next few months. Ukrainians just reached the first Surovikin line near Novoprokopivka, and the latest reports suggest they’ve already entered the eastern side of that village

      Oh goodie le epic bacon army entered a village much reason for optimism.

      What are you optimistic about, the war continuing? So silly

    • panopticon [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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      2 years ago

      Better trained is when you run headlong into long range fires, minefields, dragons teeth, AT trenches, and several layers of fortifications, under skies controlled by the enemy, hoping your wunderwaffen and inherent superiority will carry the day

      is-this Kursk?