With climate change the way it is there is a 100% certainty of revolutionary conditions. Some countries will go fascist, some will be won by the left.

You need to look at the weather happening the phillipines right now to understand this. 45 celsius.

Parts of the world at to become uninhabitable. This is a fact. Hundreds of millions of people are to be displaced.

The fascism that will descend to try to prevent this will not succeed. The scale of it is too much. They will not be able to control it. They will try but they will fail.

Revolutions under those conditions are inevitable. Shit is going to get really really crazy. What we are going to see is entirely without precedent.

Revolution will occur not because of popular support for socialism but out of societal collapse amid turmoil and unrest.

I think there will come a point where the consequences of climate change are so bad that it simply isn’t possible to do anything about it apart from collective organization and a communist way of life. I’m sure as ecosystems collapse certain countries like the US will become more fascist at that point, but a fascist construct with its inherent capitalist mode of production can’t deal with mass environmental calamity in the way that collectivism can. Seems to me that communism is inevitable because at some point it will start to mean whether or not our species can keep going. That feels pretty far off though, I doubt that’s an our lifetime thing

before covid i would have said no, but the rate at which things are deteriorating has accelerated massively in the last five or so years.

the critical indicator imo is food prices compared to incomes. if a critical mass of people can no longer afford to eat, even the most severe reaction won’t be able to maintain order. it really does come down to when the capitalists are stupid enough to let enough people starve

Death to America

It’s possible. Nobody thought the home of the revolution would be built in the Russian empire after all.

I think the west will be collapsed from the outside before it has an internal revolution, perhaps the revolution will happen after the induced collapse

The view that there will not be a revolution in our lifetimes is the most harmful commonly held belief among the western left. If we divide the revolutionary conditions into the subjective and the objective, it is not the objective ones that are lacking. We have a climate crisis with no solution under capitalism, increasing political illegitimacy, and the decay of the global monopoly of power. What we are missing is the subjective part, the party that offers an alternative. If we believe there will not be a revolution, this party will never have the vitality to direct the masses, and will instead waste all the revolutionary potential, betraying the masses.

In the west, collapse conditions are far more likely than revolution, but who knows

In the rest of the world however I see nothing but revolutions coming

Honestly the general trajectory of the west seems to be flowing along the path of least resistance, and that path apparently leads to a de facto military takeover of most western countries, in 15 years I wouldn’t be surprised if soldiers with rifles are manning checkpoints on every major road, the future of the west seems to be the former green zone in occupied Baghdad, which thinking about it has a kind of historical symmetry to it

I once wrote a very silly thing that I called something like “global revolution in one year”, where, as the title would suggest, in the span of a mere 365 days the entire capitalist system collapsed across the entire world. Trying to imagine how something could go from its present state to a completely opposite state in the span of a year or a decade can be a great way to develop a feeling of optimism and control, as well as spontaneous creativity, that makes someone a good revolutionary.

Obviously I don’t actually believe that we will witness the complete collapse of capitalism across the entire globe and the establishment of die sozialistische Weltrepublik in the span of only 365 days. It’s probably going to happen piece by piece over the course of, as you say, 20 years.

Incidentally, the last bourgeois republic to fall was Australia, more specifically the Whadjuk territory in and around Perth.

There are some particular things that I want to highlight:

• Revolution happens when people are materially poor enough to desire change but materially rich enough to be able to effect it. For countries in the imperial periphery, they need the wealth and stability for successful revolutions; for countries in the imperial core, all that is needed is a little desperation, frankly probably less desperation than most people think. In the Western revolutionaries of today we see the contradictions that will create the Western revolutionaries of the future — the number will only increase.
• Revolution outside the West and the generally growing geopolitical influence of Latin America, Africa, and the countries of Asia, creates the conditions for revolution within the West: when the West cannot rely on cheap raw materials from the “poor countries”, it must rely on its own resources; when the West cannot rely on these countries’ cheap manufacturing, either, it must rely on its own manufacturing. This will heighten class conflict while also building a stronger and more socially connected proletariat. Note that even just revolution in a few countries can be enough to critically disrupt imperialism’s supply chains — this is why the story focuses so much on revolutionary movements in countries near maritime chokepoints.
• There are growing divisions within the ruling class. It always happens that when the ruling class has its attention divided by infighting, that it is easier to fight against it, as well as that the common people are more motivated to fight against it, as it is the common people who must bear the brunt of capitalists’ infighting. If people would already risk their lives in a pointless war for their masters, one can imagine that to risk one’s life in a meaningful war for themselves would suddenly feel much more appealing. Chen Sheng and Wu Guang took up arms because the alternative was execution, after all.
• Capitalism cannot survive pandemics and climate change. In the course of the past year Eastern Norway was rammed both by the extreme weather “Hans” as well as by the infamous snow chaos of January 17th and the ensuing power outages. It is in these types of natural disasters that people get a glimpse of life outside of capitalism, where the institutions of state fail to provide for them and people have to rely on the kindness of family, friends, and even strangers. Where people develop new skills and gain new knowledge as they overcome unexpected obstacles, and where people simply don’t get to work and supply chains break down.
• Keep your eyes on Scotland and other independence movements within Western Europe and the Anglosphere. For that matter keep your eyes on all ethnic minorities in Western countries, and to the peripheral and semi-peripheral countries right next to the imperial core — we can certainly imagine Western Europe growing more economically reliant on Russia as American influence dwindles.
• Those we might label as “white” do not play a passive role. Even when the “treat machine” is still functional, some number will participate in strikes and protests as well as in sabotage and funding et cetera which aid the revolutionary cause. The natural response among white Americans is to emigrate when the going gets tough and the opportunity arises; in the story, those whites who had to (or chose to) stay on Turtle Island established “dissileagues”, which would eventually negotiate effective mergers with various Indigenous governments to create “leagues of commons” as one component of dual power.

I also recently wrote a different silly thing where in the span of a year or two, the region where I live (I’m talking an area with ca. 20,000 people, 200 km²) would experience a socialist insurgency, the building of dual power, and would eventually declare independence outright. Once again, I obviously don’t believe that this will actually happen, but the premise of that story is basically that one fairly minor grievance can quickly escalate into many very major grievances, if neither side wishes to give in, and it ultimately took only a handful of people making a few easy and rational decisions to cause that to happen.

And it definitely felt different to imagine “Western revolution” not as this grand abstract thing, but imagining how it might play out in these hyper-specific locations that I’m very intimately familiar with, places that I’ve seen hundreds or thousands of times, and tracing how average people’s grievances and interests and how far they’ll go to address them shift bit by bit through experience.

Edit: Why do I always confuse the words “insurrection” and “insurgency”? I need to get better sleep.

Maybe I have a lack of imagination but I can only see it happening in the west as an escalating series of riots. Giant riots, police response, bigger riot the next year. Then at a certain point after the riots become unmanageable, or enough cops/soldiers begin to mutiny, maybe something coherent can begin to get formed. Or it could be a pocket of leftists do something that would otherwise get called opportunistic and end up basically usurping a series of riots that was initially focused on something else.

That’s gonna be part of the rub, because a lot of successful leftist revolutions were initially popular movements for something other than socialism. Russia was an anti-war movement, Vietnam was decolonization, and Cuba was also decolonization and a call for land reform. In fact, very early on in the Cuban revolution, in the 40s and 50s, many future leaders would vocally disavow communism/socialism and instead try to pull the focus more on national self-determination. There’s that famous meeting in 1959 where Castro met then vice-president Richard Nixon. Castro outright said “i’m not a communist” to Nixon since Castro at that point was attempting to court the support of the US in overthrowing Batista.

That’s the only way I see it happening in the west as well, just way more disorganized. Ok I don’t think I’m explaining this well

For lack of a better word I can only see it happening in a way we’d call slimy, or misleading, or I don’t know what to call it. Someone else probably has better vocabulary. I don’t mean to imply Castro or the Cuban revolutionaries were misleading the people. They were heroes and should be regarded as such. What I mean is that leftist organizing has to be attached to pre-existing popular sentiment to get anywhere and there’s trial/error in regards to how it gets attached. Or the strategies undertaken. It’s not a garden party. Revolutionaries are gonna do unsavory things. A communist movement may hide its intentions, maybe make promises it can’t fulfill in order to gain traction. Lie, cheat, steal. Exaggerate. Make up stories. Scapegoat. That kind of thing I see happening in a revolutionary context.

all that said the western country I have the most hope for is France. That’s completely vibes based and I have no formal reason to say that. I feel the strings of fate shivering in the air. There’s so much directed tension in France that’s unlike anything else I feel in other western, wealthy countries.

Probably not, things have to get so unbelievably bad for the value of a revolution to outweigh the value of doing nothing and letting capitalism continue (the lure that things might get better, right?). Things also have to be really bad in the place where you are too, because so long as the facade of normalcy exists (even if it is degraded), then people will naturally come to the conclusion that such things cannot happen to them, and that they shouldn’t worry.

For example, if the USA managed to provide fuel, electricity, internet, and treats (even if somewhat intermittently) right up until it collapsed, no significant portion of the population would want a revolution until after that all got taken away, and didn’t have the promise of being returned.

Common opinion has been shown from history to change quite rapidly once shit goes down for real. We are already looking at one imperialist war on European grounds that every western state is ghoulishly continuing, and a full blown genocide in the Middle East. WW3 is looming just around the corner, and nothing is more radicalising than being sent to the meat grinder for some capitalist’s pockets. Not only that, but it also unites the people more that ever and gives them arms that they can turn against the capitalists if it comes to it.

Things aren’t looking hopeful, but they sure weren’t looking hopeful either before the October Revolution succeeded in a place that was not even fully past feudalism yet. Imperialism is even worse now and more necessary to end than in the previous century, and we now have way more theory and historical experience from existing socialism that future attempts will likely be much more successful.

It will probably be a hard and bloody period of wars and fascism until then, but I believe that we will see huge revolutions in our lifetime if we survive until then.

I think we’ll see the end of capitalism within our lifetimes; I don’t think it’ll look anything like the October Revolution. I think decaying material conditions will lead to increasing uprisings, jealousy over conditions in communist countries will lead to more uprisings, a decaying police state will lead to scared government officials making concessions, and Chinese foreign policy will also lead to western governments making concessions. I don’t think there will be a clash between revolutionary forces and standing armies; think it’ll be weird, faltering, and kind of pathetic.

Don’t imagine the glorious leaders of the revolution and the protagonists of history; imagine some barbaric backwater at China’s periphery painfully lurching into the communist era.

I’m pretty optimistic about the rest of the world. I’m not sure about the US but I’ll keep fighting. I can see partial land back through national liberation struggle as a strong possibility.