I’m just showing these comments I saw earlier, which were interesting. Since it is true, that we’ve been hearing that “Russia is cornered”, since the invasion started. I personally just want this shit to end.

These comments are relating to an article from this week.

I wonder if we will ever know what truly happens on the ground (i.e. when it comes to casualties and many other things)

    • AOCapitulator [they/them, she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
      0·
      2 years ago

      Overall, the analysis suggests that up to 188,000 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians may have died in the war – though this figure is likely to be an overestimate, since people who died of Covid likely had fewer friends than those who’ve died in the war

      The fuck? How does that assumption track at ALL? Lmfao

      You died of covid? Probably a friendless loser

      • Farman [any]@hexbear.netEnglish
        2·
        2 years ago

        It asumes people that died of covid are older. So their friends are more likley to be already dead or also died of covid.

      • Farman [any]@hexbear.netEnglish
        1·
        2 years ago

        But he posts the metodology and it seems ok. There is always some error. And we can never be sure in these cases but 190k seem more resonable than the 70k nato is claiming.

        • Ambiwar [any]@hexbear.netEnglish
          1·
          2 years ago

          The methodology is completely pulled out of his ass.

          There’s a lot wrong with it but the main thing is using linear regression for “do you know someone who has died of X?” This is cannot be a linear relationship. As the number of casualties goes up, the % of people who know a casualty logarithmically approaches 100%.

          This means the % of people who know a casualty will rise dramatically at first, and taper off. It also means it’s not a good indicator for actual deaths.