I’m just showing these comments I saw earlier, which were interesting. Since it is true, that we’ve been hearing that “Russia is cornered”, since the invasion started. I personally just want this shit to end.
These comments are relating to an article from this week.
I wonder if we will ever know what truly happens on the ground (i.e. when it comes to casualties and many other things)
As someone who is very much pro-Ukrainian in this conflict and has talked to many Ukrainians, anyone who believes the hype that Russia is days away from collapsing (again) or that Russia’s army is made entirely of uneducated starving peasants who have never held a gun before is taking crazy pills.
War economies can last a very long time, and this kind of attritional artillery based warfare on both sides (they started with almost the same doctrines) with a contested airspace is an absolute meatgrinder.
deleted by creator
There’s a few different aspects to this:
1st is that having a successful war of naked conquest is a very dangerous precedent to have. If this is normalized, then we’re going to see a lot more armed conflict. I’ve seen people here claim all sorts of justifications for Russia’s actions, but Putin himself in the announcement for the “special military operation” was waxing nostalgic about the Russian empire of Catherine the Great. He’s been relatively clear in his statements what he’s doing and why. He wants to build a new “Ruskiy Mir”, where whether you want it or not, Slavic peoples will be absorbed.
2nd is nuclear proliferation. Ukraine gave up it’s nukes for security guarantees from the US and Russia. This sets the precedent that the only way to be truly safe from wars of aggression is to have nukes and threaten your neighbours with them.
Combining these 2 points, to prevent nuclear proliferation and naked imperialism, Russia must not only lose, but be seen to lose internationally and unequivocally.
Finally, there’s the self-interest here: if Ukraine was to lose, Moldova goes next. Moldova would barely be a speedbump to Russia. Moldova is extremely close to Romania, we share a culture, language, and Moldovans get automatic Romanian citizenship if they want it. I have close Ukrainian friends too, but it’s different when you share a language and culture.
I think where you are deviating from the wider hexbear opinion here, and also where I think you’re wrong, is based in a belief that precedents are meaningful first off. Before this war was even thought about, these realities were already clear to all powerful people in the world. Acting from the basic material assumptions (and proving that they are ALREADY true) is not making them true. Not having nukes has been a death sentence to countries (eventually, without socialism) since the moment the first one existed. This war doesn’t impact that nor how rational global actors work. The ability to do “naked aggression” literally never went away, it was just hidden in plain sight with shitty western justifications. Every world power understood this well before this war, and their rational/justifications won’t be impacted. Only new material conditions to work from will arise. Russia’s loss or success actually only would give 1 major new piece of info to the world: is it possible to offensively take in the Imperial core indirectly without the result being total destruction of yourself? That’s what we’re going to learn. We learned from Korea and Vietnam that fighting defensively can work. We learned from middle eastern imperial wars that guerilla struggle is possible to slowly tire out the US.
We will Also learn small details about fighting and material and weapons and strategy, of course. But the worldwide impact is literally just “is it possible to defend yourself from US interests WITH OFFENSE?”
Also I agree with CyborgMarx, best case scenario is Donbas is free to choose to be Russian along with Crimea and Ukraine is forced to reckon with its right wing, fascistic side by being stuck between NATO and Russia after a loss
You’ve obviously put some thought into my position here and tried to understand it, so I will do my best to return the favor.
Realpolitik is certainly prevalent, and my country is no stranger to this. Words on paper are only as good as people’s willingness to do what it says. I completely agree that the majority of the time, “rules-based diplomacy” just means gunboat diplomacy with extra steps. However, that veneer of western justification at least kept the absolute worst impulses of imperialism at bay, even if just a bit. That “just a bit” part is important, because as you quite rightly say, new material conditions will result in new possibilities. What the result of those possibilities are is important. They directly affect my life in substantial ways.
The point about lessons and thinking about this in purely academic terms is difficult when you have friends and family of friends sucked into the conflict. It’s very difficult for me to engage with a point as academic as this being so close to the conflict. I know that is an admission of a lack of impartiality and perspective, but it’s the honest truth.
As I said in another comment in this thread, I see Russia as more fascistic and right-wing than Ukraine. So in my head, what you’re saying with that final sentence is “Ukraine is forced to reckon with its right wing, fascistic side by being stuck between the global hegemon and even worse right wing fascists”.
I disagree entirely that that “just a bit” exists at all. Direct imperial wars were limited only by the conditions and interests of the imperial power, and the justifications only resulted in extra work AFTERWARD the decisions were made to make convincing arguments (or find a way to hide the war).
With all due respect, you’re not just influences by perspective or lack of impartiality, but by your own interests. Being just west of Ukraine means that the fascistic border for expropriation (I mean from the West, but also possibly from Russia) will come closer the further west Russia can push. You benefit at least minmially from global imperialism by having that expropriation lead to imports on your side. I don’t blame you for desiring to not be hurt by that “border” movement, and I have to hope I will stay strong and support my comrades and movement when that inevitably comes to my place and not try to gain/maintain personal benefits. It’s always violent, just usually somewhere else.
This article is the best description for my understanding of Fascism: https://redsails.org/really-existing-fascism/
Russia is just as fascist as every capitalist government. But so far, Crimea hasn’t been experiencing the violence anymore than any other group and less than from the imperial core when they were under Ukraine. If “more fascist” means more violent and expropriating more", which is in line wiht that essay, then I think Russia is less fascist. They have legitimately experienced less of the expropriation than before. I think Donbas would be the same, and there’s a chance that that continues westward as fascism attempts to consume the border regions for profits.
I think another point of contention here is that I have a fundamentally different understanding of what the word “fascist” means compared to you, which I’m glad you’ve identified and tried to rectify. Maybe we’re just talking about different things. I’ll read that essay when I have the time, and hopefully the next conversation I have with you I’ll be a bit more capable of talking with common terminology.
Yeah my definition is more “niche” but I just fundamentally disagree withe philosophical underpinnings of definition like Umberto Eco gave and such. I think it’s clearly a liberal definition lacking in material or dialectical understanding of the world and fails to ever define anything really.
Regardless, definition itself isnt the basis of the convo. If what I call fascism was called “time-location-based-expropriation-interests”, we could still have the convo. we’re talking about real things regardless of the word. I still think we disagree after that though, unless the essay also convinces you of an evil you didn’t previously understand and results in you agreeing with my analysis or so.
Yeah nah bro the Russian speakers of the Donbass and especially Crimea don’t deserve to be ethnically cleansed by a bunch of bloodthirsty Ukrainian nationalists hopped up on fantasies of revenge
Also the “naked conquest precedent” in international politics was already set by the US in 2003, hence the neutrality over this current conflict by all states outside the west and it’s puppets
Honest question, do you really think that a fascist victory in Ukraine is better - for the left and for the world, somehow?
Also, do you really think that Russia wants to conquer its surrounding countries just to be embroiled in decades long internal conflict and facing endless local resistance? If so, why did Russia spend the last 8 years pushing for Donbass to be returned to Ukraine via the Minsk agreements? Why did Russia continuously push for a diplomatic solution with the US and NATO prior to the invasion in 2022?
I’m sorry but tracing the history of the events since 2013 simply don’t add up to your assertions here.
I think calling the entirety of Ukraine and all the people in it “fascist” is hyperbole of the highest order.
If you’re going to make the argument that the current Ukrainian government is fascist, then unfortunately the same things but worse is mirrored in Russia, and you have 2 fascist countries fighting.
The diplomatic solution thing is interesting because the main point was not about Donbass at all, but about the Finlandization of Ukraine, determining for them which organizations they can and cannot voluntarily join. Why is it ok for Russia to dictate terms to smaller countries about what they can do, but when the US does it it’s the worst thing in the world? What’s the difference here?
I mean, the Ukrainian government has been the one that promoted Nazis in power, initiated de-communization across Ukraine and removal of Soviet/communist symbols, banned socialist and communist parties and left wing organizations in the country, brutally suppressed and murdered left wing activists and failed to prosecute the Nazis who have committed atrocities against the civilians of Donbass (even worse, they were glorified on state media).
This is just patently false. There has been so much white-washing in history that it is actually scary to me. How long before people start believing that it was the USSR that started WWII?
Russia did not object to Ukraine signing the EU Association Agreement - their only problem was the existing tariff-free agreement between Russia and Ukraine that would have allowed EU goods to flood the Russian market but not in return. Putin even offered to hold a tripartite meeting to resolve this problem - the EU rejected this proposal.
In this case, Russia simply has no choice but to terminate its tariff-free agreement with Ukraine, because nobody wants to lose money in business. And for Ukraine that meant losing a lot of its trade revenues, since Russia was its largest trading partner. A problem that could have been easily resolved had the EU been more accommodating, mind you. But they refused, why?
To put it in very clear terms for you: the EU Association Agreement was an economic warfare against both Russia (to destroy Russian domestic industries by flooding EU goods into their market i.e. what “free trade” means to most developing countries) and Ukraine (forcing them to take the IMF loans that would have bound them to perpetual dollar debt and with austerity demands i.e. to cut social spending and education).
Yanukovych did not reject the EU Association Agreement, as opposed to what many media tried to portray after the fact. He said that he needed more time to work this out with Moscow, and merely postponed signing the agreement. However, the ultranationalists were already making their moves, and he was ousted before he could even get anything substantial from Russia, let alone signing the deal with the EU.
It was the EU that determined which organizations that Ukraine can or cannot voluntarily join, not Russia!
What absolutely drives me nuts is that this conflict was rooted in very tangible nuts and bolts issues but Westerners all just think it happened because Putin personally wants to drink the tears of apple-cheeked Ukrainian children because Russians are Chaotic Evil
It’s all mindless orgasmic cheerleading for war which is extra scary since it will fuck up the quality of life for Europeans for years to come
Like you can still think Putin sucks, which he does, but at least acknowledge reality
I agree that Ukraine has engaged in suppression of activists and political parties. At the risk of sounding like I’m doing whataboutism, using suppression of activists and parties to justify Russian aggression when they absolutely suppress their entire population seems strange.
Could you please point out some prominent Ukrainian politicians in positions of power right now that you consider nazist? I do mean that as an honest question, I’m honestly trying to see your perspective here.
On the economic side of the spectrum, Ukraine was never a member of the Eurasian Customs Union. There was never any free trade of goods between Ukraine and Russia. There were talks of potentially joining it and it was floated as an alternative to the EU Association Agreement, but it wasn’t in place. This means Russia could have put as many tariffs and controls on EU/Ukrainian goods as they wanted, there was never any danger of an uncontrolled flood of goods into Russia.
Also, the EU never forced Ukraine into that deal. You can make the argument about Ukrainian ultranationalists if you want, but they aren’t in the EU. At the end of the day, it was Ukrainians, however much you disagree with them, that wanted it.
The democratically elected president of Ukraine was removed in a western-backed coup and replaced with a new western-friendly president. The US hand picked the Ukrainian prime minister. The Ukrainian finance minister was an American citizen that gained Ukrainian citizenship the same day she became finance minister.
How can you possibly look at that and say it was the will of the Ukrainian people. Do you just mean that the ultranationalists that participated in the coup were Ukrainian?