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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: September 15th, 2023

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  • Economic mobility is usually determined by things like IQ, EQ and other marketable skills. So I don’t really know if your proposal is the right way to measure it. But such data would at least give some insight.

    In the USA, most research I have seen says they have low economic mobility, because the rich have access to the best schools, etc.

    But still, it’s not zero. Both JD Vance and AOC are examples of economic mobility.

    One of them still fights (or appears to fight) for the class they came from, the other is successfully recruited to serve the interests of the ruling class.

    Were they born in 1908 (and ignoring race and gender for the moment), then probably both of them would have been leaders for the working class.




  • Correct, but there is a lot of nuance.

    Indeed, when things get bad, the public is willing to take risks. When everything is good enough, they don’t revolt.

    However, successful revolts do require intelligent and capable leaders.

    What the rich have realized, is that if they ensure smart and skilled kids get picked out of the drudgery and get comfortable working for the rich, then the exploited class will not really have anyone to lead them.

    Put another way, in 1908, every factory had a few leaders working at the lowest levels. And they are the ones who spearheaded strikes and such.

    Nowadays, society is really stratified in terms of skill.

    Anyone who grew up poor, but had talent to organize, probably ended up in some kind of middle management or professional job and makes 2x the average.

    Convincing these people to have class solidarity is difficult. Only a few of them actually see the bigger. Those tend to become middle or upper management or politicians, making 3-5x the average workers salary. And of those, only a very select few are willing to fight for the common man.

    So yeah, the rich engineered a system that they can control. To actually change anything is going to be very difficult.





  • I read up on it. I think the main thing was the many Kurds, especially Turkish Kurds, don’t want to fight Turkey anymore. The PKK had a lot of trouble recruiting people. And many Kurdish leaders are actually allied with Erdogan. I believe Erdogan has two Kurdish ministers.

    But with their autonomy in Syria and Iraq, the hardliners were still holding out and hopeful.

    However, in Syria, Turkey dealt them quite some hard blows these past years and got the US under Trump to abandon them. The final piece is that the new Syrian regime is allied with Turkey and Trump is back in office.

    So they basically have a choice, stop fighting or look forward to years of fighting against bayraktar drones.

    Of course, I am sure Erdogan put in a lot of deal sweeteners that we don’t know about. At the end of the day, Turkey and Syria both need peace with the Kurds for their own stability and growth. And the Kurds have significant leverage, even if independence is not in the cards.




  • We (Europe) already did most of the heavy lifting for Ukraine. The US mostly gave old stockpiles of weapons that they would’ve needed to destroy anyway. We are the ones actually paying cash to keep them afloat.

    The problem is, in the post-WW2 order, our defense and our defense industry was made dependent on the USA by design. And even up until last November, Europe didn’t want to challenge this arrangement and just went full steam ahead with this arrangement, ordering US made weapons. I think Europe was in denial that Biden could lose or that NATO could ever end.

    Only France, and to a limited extent, Sweden and Turkey, have independent defense industries.

    In the future, we will have it again. And Ukraine will actually be a key player.

    But in the short term, there is no magical button to press that can produce the arms.

    Undoing decades of integration isn’t going to be easy.




  • I think they meant the economy, not population, but still, quality comment right here.

    People who don’t do math are doomed to talk nonsense. And you just used math to showcase the stupidity. Bravo, sir.

    One of my pet peeves is all the people concerned about the birth rate.

    We are at a time in the history of the planet where there have never existed as many homo sapiens as there are today, and that record will get broken every day for the next 20-50 years.

    Of all the times to want a higher birth rate since we have existed as a species, this just ain’t the time where it makes any kind of logical sense.





  • Honestly, I expect this AI bubble to implode with much more devastation than the dot-com bubble.

    And it’s not even that AI is useless. Like the internet (during dot-com) it will definitely have good uses.

    But (a) those uses will take many years to crystallize and mature and (b) the early capital-intensive movers have a big disadvantage and most of them don’t have a feasible path to recoup the money invested into them.

    This is why the AI club is licking Trump’s boot. They will get the federal government to bail them out by buying overpriced AI products and services and taking over worthless investments “in the interest of national security”.

    American taxpayers are going to foot this bill and they will not like it when they start seeing the effects.