“The problem for the US is the starting point; every round of fiscal stimulus brings the US one step closer to debt unsustainability,” JPMorgan strategist Michael Cembalest said. “However, we’re accustomed to deteriorating US government finances with limited consequences for investors, and one day that may change (the boiling frog analogy),” Cembalest added.
Notice how he doesn’t mention the bloated military budget, only ‘stimulus’. I do not think ‘debt’ is the issue that will end up killing the U.S., as long as the Dollar is the reserve currency it can keep printing as much it wants.
The dollar won’t be a reserve currency for long now that BRICS is getting stronger and eventually China will topple the US as the foremost superpower. It’s already written into the future as hegemonies decline, fall and are replaced.
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The productivity from AI will save the US from this debt problem. /s but not /s.
100% tax on any amount greater than $999,999,999 and also tax the churches.
The thought of taxing churches makes me warm inside
Loan shark shaking his head and waging his finger at all the predatory loans his neighbors have gotten themselves into.
Unfortunately this is about the federal government’s “debt,” which is a red herring, and not the country’s international balance of payments deficit.
It’s true that they can just print money here, but this leads to secondary effects that the article touches on. Specifically, increased currency volume tends to mean devaluation leading to private lenders to tighten up.
If they print enough of it without shredding any through taxation, yes, but I think this is commonly overblown so Congress can claim they can’t pay for stuff, except of course for military stuff. This article was timed for Congress to make spending decisions; they come out every cycle. Congressional leaders announce an agreement on spending levels, a key step to averting shutdown
Right, as far as public spending goes there isn’t really a problem. They can print to an infinite amount because the debt is in their own currency, and as long as you print the currency, you can print however much you want. There’s never going to be a default because the fed can just create more credit. The government can always pay its debt by simply printing the money.
The problem for the US economy lies with private debt that is leading to a default. Creditors are tightening their lending which is leading VC funded businesses to crash. Meanwhile, individuals become increasingly unable to service their debts, we’re seeing them being forced to forfeit their property. Private banks that are holding debt also end up with bad debt as a result. This sort of dynamic is precisely what we saw leading up to the 2008 crisis. We’re now seeing similar things happening, but on a much bigger scale.
The Fed raised their rates in order to tighten credit, cool the economy, and cause layoffs. And they had to have known that people would start defaulting on their debts. I think that’s the main driver here.
My understanding is that the government knows these banks are insolvent from underwater bonds, and quantitative easing is how they’re trying to keep that swept under the rug. It’s some hat trick around the bonds’ values.
The bonds are underwater as a direct result of the Fed raising rates, and they knew, or should have known, that this would happen.
can’t they just print the money? i don’t get why debt is a problem for this case
The article gives a few reasons, one being that private lenders tend to tighten up when inflation is rising because they realize that businesses won’t be able to grow at a sufficient rate for them to make a return.
