Summary
NASA has lowered the estimated risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in December 2032 to 1.5%, down from 3.1% a day earlier. The European Space Agency’s (ESA) estimate stands at 1.38%.
The asteroid, 40-90 meters wide, could cause significant city-level destruction but not a global catastrophe.
The projected impact corridor spans the Pacific, South America, Africa, and South Asia.
NASA also estimates a 0.8% chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon.
The global astronomical community expects the odds of an asteroid to hit Earth in December 2032 to eventually fall to zero.
I love how they make it seem like some insider expertise versus knowing basics of how percentages work.
I mean, without knowing what the number represents, it’s not obvious why it goes up and then suddenly drops like this.
They basically predict a cross-section of places it could go through, which shrinks with improved data. If the Earth is still inside, that makes it’s share go up. Eventually, it hits an edge and the share drops to zero suddenly
Reminder that the asteroid is only large enough to destroy a city and, even given the rare chance of it hitting Earth, in all likelihood would land in the ocean and cause no damage. It’s not a doomsday asteroid
imagine if it falls and perfectly annihilates the trump administration though
As someone who’s played MMOs, 1.5% chance is actually pretty high.
I would sleep like a baby if it had these odds, lol.
Everyone hoping there’s still a chance, you need to remember… this is only a city-killer asteroid.
We need to hope for a much bigger asteroid.
I hope it’s not headed for Buenos Aires, but I’m ready to do my part.
