- NTSync coming in Kernel 6.11 for better Wine/Proton game performance and porting.
- Wine-Wayland last 4/5 parts left to be merged before end of 2024
- Wayland HDR/Game color protocol will be finished before end of 2024
- Nvidia 555/560 will be out for a perfect no stutter Nvidia performance
- KDE/Gnome reaching stability and usability with NO FKN ADS
- VR being usable
- More Wine development and more Games being ported
- Better LibreOffice/Word compatibility
- Windows 10 coming to EOL
- Improved Linux simplicity and support
- Web-native apps (Including Msft Office and Adobe)
- .Net cross platform (in VSCode or Jetbrains Rider)
What else am I missing?
What else am I missing?
The fact that 90% of people don’t give a shit about ads, privacy or their operating system in general. They want a machine to open a browser, that’s it. If Windows comes pre-installed, they’ll use Windows.
The only realistic chance we’ve got is that MS shoots itself in the foot once more by all that Recall crap and businesses drop Windows. But that’s a long shot.
Businesses that already use Windows with all of the heavily integrated business-related stuff from Microsoft (AD, Exchange, SharePoint, Teams, Outlook, etc.) won’t change that just because a feature that most likely can be disabled via GPO.
I find most people don’t know of the alternatives but they are open to change as they are unhappy with current options that they are aware of. I’ve talked with a few people that were surprisingly open to to trying Linux. They didn’t know how easy it is to use and install but jumped on the opportunity as they were unhappy with Windows.
Changing to Linux means, people…:
- need to have an understanding of operating systems, so they can think about alternatives
- need to be aware of the actual alternative
- need to be willing to learn something new
- need to be willing to leave some applications or games behind
- need to choose a Linux distribution
- need the technical ability and understanding to actually download, flash and boot from boot system, install it and setup initial, such as root password and such
These are basic and trivial stuff for us, but most normies don’t have this understanding and interest to go this far. And then it depends if they are happy and stay. Even if every PC manufacturer and distributor would offere the same PC with Windows and Linux, most would just choose Windows (probably). This is the current reality.
Mostly yes but there’s one other option that simplifies the whole thing: Chromebooks. They’re actually pretty decent for someone who doesn’t need much beyond a browser, a mail client, and a basic office suite.
Sure, they’re tied to Google with all that entails but they can be a real option for someone like a senior who relies on relatives for tech support.
Such a hard agree. My wife won’t even let me install Linux, which takes out the more technical aspects of the above.
She’s just comfortable on Windows. Most people don’t want to learn something new and even fewer actually care about privacy.
Edit: Us Linux users assume that if Windows gets bad enough people will switch to Linux, when we all should face facts that normies will much sooner switch to Mac.
that normies will much sooner switch to Mac.
Rich normies.
Something I’ve never checked for but…are there any linux installers that run from within windows? Shrink the windows partition, create a linux partition, populate it, install grub, and tell the user to reboot and choose linux? I think general lack of good ext4 fs support in windows might make things difficult, but you don’t actually need to do that part from within windows. There could be a second installer that’s triggered the first time they boot from grub.
I feel like a well supported installer like that would dramatically lower the barrier to entry. It could make dual booting windows a breeze for anyone who knows how to run an installer and reboot, which is what people actually want.
Q4OS has an installer like that, but you have to change the boot order after installation, I don’t think it uses grub.
Nice, indeed it looks like it does! Wonder if that installer could be packaged and licensed in a way that more distros could use it.
Until something breaks, or doesn’t have a GUI. The average user seeing a terminal means they will abandon it. And even if they are willing to handle a terminal to fix an issue, the toxic community members that flock to be the first to respond condescendingly to new users will turn them away permanently.
Linux communities have some of the most helpful users, but they also have people worse than a League of Legends game. And all it takes is one of them to turn the average person away forever.
This was my experience years ago.
… And then something happens and they want you to install Windows again.
As much as I like Linux, compared to Windows and Mac OS it’s high maintenance. Once in a while, things will bork themselves. And you need to have at least a rough understanding of what’s happening to fix it.
Also (and that’s not a Linux problem per se) people seem to think if Windows breaks, MS or they themselves are at fault, if Linux breaks, that weird nerd and his hacker stuff are at fault.
I have to disagree, at least in my experience.
Windows causes more problems, both for my mum and myself.Her only purpose of a PC is basically to open a web browser, answer some mails and plug in a USB from time to time. For her, Mint never made one single problem, except when the hard drive failed.
She really liked the “boringness” and the old Windows charme.And for me, Linux never made any big troubles in general. When I used Tumbleweed, there were a few papercuts (e.g. graphical glitches, program freezes, etc.) due to the bleeding edge, but nothing major.
And since I use Fedora Atomic, I completely forget that I use an OS in general. I never have to update anything, I can’t break my stuff, etc…
It’s the most “boring” and user friendly OS I’ve used, even more than MacOS and Windows. Only Android/ iOS are better in that regard.But I’ve never seen my OS just borking itself. If that should ever happen, I can easily roll back in a second and it will work again.
And you need to have at least a rough understanding of what’s happening to fix it.
If you can fix Windows (which made way more problems after updates for me) then fixing Linux is way easier. And if you’re an average person, then you go to a local repair shop and say “My PC broke” and they reinstall Windows for you.
Without fail, every Linux installation I had destroyed itself after a while.
Be it a full boot partition, some weird driver compatibility, etc, etc.
My Windows installations (granted, all work laptops) never destroyed themselves. Yes, some bugs here and there, but it worked well enough for home usage. You can’t discount that.
Okay, but understand that from for example my point of view, your perception appears really skewed because my GNU/Linux installations have never “destroyed [themselves] after a while”. Respectfully, I think that you project your Linux failures unto the entire ecosystem, based on issues that were unique to you.
Without fail, every Linux installation I had destroyed itself after a while.
User-induced trauma, poor distros.
I’ve got the complete opposite to you. I’m in a household of 3 gaming desktops and 3 laptops, plus family who need help. I’ve been daily driving Linux for about a decade now and keep duel boot around just for Adobe products.
On all these machines, Linux hs been rock solid and never had issues that wasn’t user caused. Windows on the other hand drives me crazy with how much it fucks out. I have next to no control over it. It updates when it wants. I have no control over what’s updated. I hate the gods damn ads (and that’s on Windows 10) despite running de-crappifying software. I hate how many errors it has and how long it takes t troubleshoot them. I hate that if the system borks itself enough, it’s faster and less insanity inducing to just reinstall the whole os than try and fix it. I hate that Windows just gets progressively slower and laggier over time whereas my 6 year running Arch install was as fast as the day I installed it.
Then people move to Mac.
Most of the points listed here don’t matter a hoot to the average user.
That’s slowly changing though, as the enschittification of windows continues. They may not care to know about the details, but all of those points do fall under the “it just works” catagory. And they do care about that.
True.
The only thing the average consumer will even notice is the end of support for Windows 10. However, once the prompt to upgrade to Windows 11 appears, 99% will click “yes” and forget about it. They might be a little annoyed by the changes, but that will be all.
However, once the prompt to upgrade to Windows 11 appears, 99% will click “yes” and
be informed that their computer does not support Win11
and forget about it.
Ah yes, this year is definitely the year of the Linux desktop. For real this time!
There’s a real opportunity here and we can either take it and run or we can let it pass us by.
The problem is usability for non power users. As a server environment nothing beats it but man the UI on these apps have some horrendous defaults and the CLI is everywhere. KDE still can’t get rounded corners right.
Though I agree with your overall point, I can’t see why rounded corners (or the lack of it) might be a noticeable issue.
Whenever I install Linux on someone’s computer, the first thi that they ask is always “why aren’t the corners properly rounded? I can’t use this!”
(No, this has never happened, but it would be funny, I’d get to smack them over the head)
There one glaring issue. Most people don’t really even know what an operating system is and some of the people I talk to think Linux is a manufacture.
I literally bring up Linux to my friend when they are having trouble getting windows to work and they say I think I have a linux. They mean it’s a Lenovo but they seem pretty confused about the idea of installing a different OS on their machine. This isn’t just older people but 20 something year olds (about my age).
It’s funny to me but I try to be patient and help them with their problems anyway.
Confusing Linux with Lenovo is pretty funny.
My ex wife turned out to be a Lenovo. She and her new girlfriend seem very happy. /s
Must of been how they used the little red nub.
Obligatory xkcd: https://xkcd.com/243/
Bro - sounds like you missed an opportunity to dual boot!
I have Linux in a Lenovo… What does it mean???
Lenovo’s, especially the older Thinkpad T-series (such as the Thinkpad T440) are excellent Linux laptops, they’re durable, upgradable and offer a smooth ootb experience with Linux systems (down to open source drivers for their fingerprint readers)
So it means u prolly don gud
wow I have never heard people being this ignorant. that sounds funnt, and a bit sad. too bad I have hp and not linux
I can’t blame them. There’s a lot out there that I still remain ignorant of. I’m sure we’re all a bit ill informed here and there.
Anybody seriously believing this has a misunderstanding of how little people care about what OS they use and how much they care that it works the way they expect.
There’s more than a few reasons why Linux can’t make the jump to holding a dominant position in the desktop market.
One is simply preinstallation. For companies (and therefore the general public) to adopt the Desktop Linux, they’d need it simply to be installed for them, with a Desktop Environment like Gnome or KDE.
Secondly is updates. As much as Linux users tout the control they have over when and how updates take place, and how much Windows users will always complain about having to update their systems, until system updates on Linux are made automatic (or at least given the option to be made automatic), there cannot be a mainstream Linux Desktop. This means updates that happen very much like Windows, no administrator/sudo password, just happens on reboot regularly.
The reason for this is mainly that the average user would never update unless forced, and then when something inevitably breaks, they are left, as always, frustrated that their computer just didn’t work as expected forever without any upkeep, understanding, or updates.
Lastly is support. And this is multifaceted. By support I mean software support by companies like Adobe. I also mean a much farther reaching swath of random devices that literally plug and play like on Windows.
As an aside, I’ll also say that since there is a move towards Wayland, there also needs to be a No Configuration Necessary way of running Nvidia on Wayland. This is less a Linux issue, and more a Nvidia one, but until pretty much any and all hardware works on Linux the way it just works on Windows, this sadly affects Linux Desktop adoption as more and more of the Linux Desktop ecosystem moves towards forcing Wayland adoption.
Finally I’ll say that the Microsoft corporation at large obviously relies mainly on Corporate Adoption of its products and services, and that the Windows Desktop is simply one part of that greater whole. Their approach to competing with Apple and their walled garden ecosystem has been to slowly but surely create their own, its just so much larger you forget there are walls. They have done this by absorbing more and more of the tech ecosystem either by acquisition, invention, or otherwise. Examples ot this include Bing and All Search Engines that Use it, the pushing of TypeScript into JavaScript Development, the predominance and proliferation of VSStudio/VSCode in modern software development, their heavy involvement with OpenAI and aggressive pushing of AI products/services, their acquisition of Github and subsequent further expansion of influence over software development and distribution, and much much more.
Despite the privacy invasion, enshittefication of the user experience, and their various other ways they have mistreated their users specifically via the direction they’ve taken Windows, Microsoft has established itself as THE Desktop, as THE Workstation, and as THE company that comes to mind when the average person mentions “computer”, and the majority of people associate computer related productivity and play with Windows.
For all the advances made to Desktop Linux, especially in recent years, it is unlikely that Linux Desktop adoption will ever proliferate to the kinds of mainstream adoption that its accolades desire. Until Linux (or at least a Linux distribution) can demonstrate what I’ve mentioned above (preinstallation, automatic/automated updates, and wide spread software/hardware support from various 3rd party vendors) along with demonstrating a work flow/user experience that is somehow both familiar to the user and also better than the experience on Windows, then the day of the Linux Desktop will never come.
This aforementioned demonstration, btw, would have to become obscenely apparent to the average every day computer user who just wants to get their work done, play a Video Game, and watch Netflix, all without having to ever even know what a terminal emulator is.
I love Linux, and I think the Linux Desktop is not only a superior user experience, but is just better in general than Windows. But the average user I’ve encountered generally hates their Computer if it doesn’t work as expected 110% of the time. Linux, and honestly computers, will never be able to do that, but the closer the Desktop (and user facing GUIs more broadly) get to creating that illusion of “it all just works all the time”, the more adoption you’ll see.
no automatic updates
Well it’s really not entirely true unless you’re on a rolling release (which most people should if they can do basic system administration themselves). Unattended updates were a thing in traditional Linux distros with frozen release cycles since forever. On any Ubuntu-based system it’s a matter of switching a toggle, and I think it could’ve been Mint that enabled that by default (I’m not sure) at least for security updates, because users never updated their systems. They can still be done much quicker and more transparently than Windows does that, without ever forcing users to reboot in any given time.
The problem is also that once in like 5 years you absolutely have to upgrade system to a newer version to keep it updates in such scenario. Popping up a dialog with info that your system goes EOL and you’ll loose security updates and one click upgrade button should be enough.
This aforementioned demonstration, btw, would have to become obscenely apparent to the average every day computer user who just wants to get their work done, play a Video Game, and watch Netflix, all without having to ever even know what a terminal emulator is.
That sums it all up. The average user wants a PC that just works. Terminal is a big no for the average user, and while we dont get gui ways of doing everything an average user does, it will be a big barrier. Even calamares needs to be waaaaay simpler (like a “i have no idea what im doing, configure it all for me” option).
Pretty sure Ubuntu does hands off updates. And neither arch or Ubuntu required me to do any configuration to get Nvidia graphics working aside from the driver selection in the installer
On X11, Nvidia is pretty close to plug n’play (unless you install multiple kernels, but even then it isn’t so bad). Wayland has been a stuttery mess for Nvidia for a while now and there’s a long standing issue up that hopefully will be resolved in 550 release.
That said, linux desktop environment developers will likely have to adjust a large amount of environment variables (more than they probably have already) that thus far have had to be set by the User by hand. One has only to look at the Hyprland docs on setting up Nvidia to see the extent to which the bulk of the configuration is set on the User as it stands right now.
On X11, Nvidia is pretty close to plug n’play (unless you install multiple kernels, but even then it isn’t so bad). Wayland has been a stuttery mess for Nvidia for a while now and there’s a long standing issue up that hopefully will be resolved in 550 release.
That said, linux desktop environment developers will likely have to adjust a large amount of environment variables (more than they probably have already) that thus far have had to be set by the User by hand. One has only to look at the Hyprland docs on setting up Nvidia to see the extent to which the bulk of the configuration is set on the User as it stands right now.
nice doctorate thesis bro
I think we should be thankful for having users contribute long-form thought-out content like this, instead of ridiculing them.
Agreed. I don’t care enough to read it all. But to anyone who does. Nice.
I love how delusional people here are.
Joking lol but serious that it will never happen. Windows has waaay too much of a monopoly for that to never happen.
Like wtf, am I supposed to tell my mom to use the terminal to download ms word? Oh wait sorry you can use libre office! It’s the same but… Well it looks different. And isn’t as functional.
People around here are delusional a lot of times, but to say that windows has too much of a monopoly to lose market, is too much of an exaggeration. Microsoft has been taking unpopular decisions, newer windows versions have been facing more and more resistance, macos has been growing and taking a share of the market, some governments and smaller businesses have been trying linux as a way to cut expenses, linux usability have been improving a lot, android devices have been taking more steps into taking functionalities from desktop systems and improving usability with keyboard and mouse, a lot of computers that do simple processing have been replaced by sbcs, like raspberry pis, etc.
Windows isn’t too big to fail, and it’s not impossible that we’re close to see it starting to fall. Now, on what os would become the bigger player, that’s another story.
Fun fact: My elderly mother uses linux, and without my help. Also, she never used the terminal.
some governments […] have been trying linux as a way to cut expenses
I have been hearing such news for close to two decades but not without news where many such organisations switch back to using proprietary software due to a mixture of reasons ranging from usability to politics.
Windows usage is decreasing every year. Slowly but… And it will reach a point where it will have not enough critical mass to be “THE OS” but “another OS”.
I agree that it’s not the year of the linux desktop, and that people who think it is are very naive, but you don’t need to tell anyone to use the terminal for anything for many distros.
Until you encounter some weird glitch that needs to be fixed using the terminal. It happens maybe once every couple of months for me, but it still happens. Even so, I’m considering switching fully after windows 10 goes EOL.
What else am I missing?
Global Linux usage stats vs global Windows usage stats for PC Desktops.
Linux is roughly at 3.88% market share. You don’t think we can bump Linux adoption to 99.9% in the next six months?
We just have to keep writing these “Year of the Linux” posts every year.
Come on… don’t be so pessimistic!!
You mean realistic???
You know what gets ppl to use Linux? 100% Software compatibility out of the box and OEM who preinstall Linux distros.
Barely anyone outside the bubble oft techies and enthusiasts cares. You have to BRING it to the users. For most oft them comfort is king after all.
I wonder if atomic desktops would change manufacturers’ mind. We have to admit LTSes like from Ubuntu failed to make pre-installed Linux popular.
Silverblue contains too much cutting-edge software to be pre-installed as of now, but if Red Hat decides to provide a mechanism for manufacturers to better stabilize Silverblue I’d take it seriously. Automatic updates with cleanly split customization mechanisms, and the source is available. If the PC is just supposed to do web browsing with couple peripherals like a fucking printer (don’t ask me why), it might be preferable over Windows. And my relatives can’t configure Windows on their own anyway.
At the same time I don’t know why Chromebook isn’t more popular cus it’s probably good enough for 90% of use cases. (The rest is basically elderly people who want 10GB photos in their 2TB SSDs, only to lose them “accidentally”. Maybe Chromebook can do that, too, but I just can’t recommend it due to corner cases I’m not aware of. I mean, I don’t want to test Chromebooks for my relatives.)
No. Nobody cares, no matter what MS does. They can literally crap on users faces and they’ll happily lick it as long is Windows is the supported platform. And it will stay like that for decades to come.
We can expect some growth, because the tech savvy PC enthusiasts might want to look for alternatives, and if the desktop Linux is good enough, some will stick to it, some will go back, as it was always for last 30 years.
Yeah it’s tough to expect general users to switch. I would just like linux to go over 5% threshold so that companies seriously consider it.
I was a Windows user up until a couple of years ago when I switched to Kubuntu and never looked back. I think after Windows 10 is gone, there will be a big uptick in Linux.
People said that about Windows 7 EoL too, which was much more of a paradigm shift. Absolutely nothing happened. The dial for “market share” barely moved, let alone Linux increasing substantially.
Just not gonna happen. I really wish it would, but it’s just wishful thinking. Most people either don’t care (they just “use a PC”) or wouldn’t know how to switch anyway.
Comparing the era of Win 7 EoL with the current one isn’t apples to apples. For one, there actually was a slight increase in Linux marketshare. Second, enshittification has entirely taken over (made even worse by AI), and that wasn’t thing until a few years into Windows 10. Will it be The Year Of The Linux Desktop? Absolutely not, but there will be an uptick in Linux usage. The real delusion is saying there won’t be. Who knows how long it’ll last? But we’ve already seen more and more people get Linux curious thanks to Microsoft’s continued blunders and things like the Steam Deck.
You clearly misunderstood my post. Never said it was apples to apples, quite the opposite. I said the change from 7 to 10 was much bigger (and yes, we’re ignoring Win 8 completely).
And of course will there be an uptick in Linux usage, he says it would be a “big” one, to which I objected to. Linux desktop has been trending up for a while, and while there might be a slight additional bump, I highly doubt it will be far beyond the margin of error for that general positive trend.
I also said it “barely” moved (it being the market share), which implies it did move, just not a lot.
More to the expected magnitude of the 10 EoL date pushing people to Linux, it won’t be anywhere near what valve accomplished with the steam deck. Why? Because people buy a gaming console, they can play games on. Most don’t care that it’s Linux, it’s just a tool/toy. It happens to be Linux underneath. On their PC they actively have to change it themselves. If people bought a PC that had Linux on it, they probably wouldn’t overly notice or care either, but they just can’t. Overwhelmingly they just come with windows, it you want it or not (usually there is no option to not buy that license).
Edit: what is harder to predict (or guess) is the indirect influence of valves accomplishment. Now that gaming on Linux it’s actually viable, this might actually open the door for more people to give it a go. But as per usual with these things, it’s probably less people who actually do it than one would intuitively expect or hope.
Edit 2: changed Vista to Win8
I said the change from 7 to 10 was much bigger (and yes, we’re ignoring vista completely).
Do you mean Windows 8/8.1 instead of Vista, as 8 was between 7 and 10?
Ah yes of course, edited. Both are the unwanted stepchildren, so it’s hard to keep em straight when you don’t care about em…
I switched from Windows to Linux full time around Feb 2024.
I think Linux is ready for desktop use.
I’m a Mac guy and I have a PC for gaming. I just installed Mint on my PC and it has been working great for gaming. I probably won’t need Windows ever again.
This isn’t the first time Microsoft has pushed telemetry and malware in its OS. But I think they have finally crossed the line with CoPilot. What they want to do with it is so incredibly obvious and intrusive that most people just won’t stand for it.
My personal definition of “the year of the Linux desktop” is when we hit a market share % that starts to convince companies to take Linux support seriously. I don’t think we’re that far off from that happening and if Microsoft keeps adding in these terrible “features” to windows, more people will move over. Is 2024 the year for that? Probably not but I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens before 2030.
A friend brought up some Ubisoft game (that I’m not that interested in) that is exclusive to their launcher. I was 90% sure this was an indication there was no hope for Linux there. I googled it and they apparently had already promised they would be strongly supporting Linux. A shitty company like Ubisoft is supporting it. I think we’re very close.
I’d be very curious to see the hours played on games by OS. The last data I saw of probable usage percent had Linux at 4%, but I’d bet a large number of Windows and Mac machines are mostly just web browser machines. I would suspect Linux users are more likely to be gamers as they’ve already shown more interest in technology.
I don’t know what percent we need to be mainstream, but we’re on a good trgectory. If we can manage to hit 10% I doubt it could be overlooked anymore. Also, every person who swaps over is one more person who’s likely to push others to swap. It’s a slippery slope. We’ll get there.
